Former President Trump’s softening stance on reproductive health has raised questions about his standing with white evangelical voters, a key part of his coalition dating back to 2016.
Last week, the former president said he would veto a national abortion ban if elected, while his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), said the GOP needed to regain voters’ trust on the issue. Former first lady Melania Trump went even further, emphatically voicing her support for abortion rights.
The changed rhetoric has led some to question whether Trump will be able to maintain enthusiasm among white evangelicals, who are generally seen as opposed to abortion.
“They just don’t fully understand the depth of meaning that the abortion issue has to evangelicals and what that could translate into,” said Terry Amann, an evangelical pastor based in Des Moines, Iowa, who met with Trump in the run-up to the GOP presidential primary.
“Why wouldn’t you run on that and court those evangelicals?” Amann added.
But many in the evangelical community say the former president still enjoys high popularity with the voting bloc, pointing to his record of appointing conservative Supreme Court justices that led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022.
“President Trump has remained amazingly consistent on his viewpoint that it ought to be left up to the states to decide their own abortion policy,” said Robert Jeffress, pastor of First Baptist Church in Dallas.
Jeffress went on to note that while most conservative evangelicals supported the overturning of Roe, there are differing views within the community about how abortion should be handled at the state level and whether there should even be a national ban on the procedure.
Additionally, Jeffress and other evangelical leaders note that while abortion is a key issue for evangelical voters, it’s not the only deciding factor for them. According to a Pew Research survey released last month, 48 percent of white evangelicals said abortion will be important in deciding how they vote.
David Brody, chief political analyst at the Christian Broadcasting Network, noted that while the issue is important to the voting bloc, evangelicals are taking other issues such as the economy and immigration into account, just like other voters.
“This idea that we’re trying to extrapolate the 1980s culture war isn’t going to have the same effect this time around,” Brody said.
“It’s different with evangelicals today. It just is,” he continued. “Abortion is important to them, I’m not saying that it’s not — but it’s just one of the issues.”
And recent data suggests Trump’s support with the group is holding firm. The same Pew Research survey found 82 percent of white evangelical voters said they would vote for Trump, and 16 percent said they would vote for Harris.
“The numbers I’m seeing from Pew and other places show no empirical evidence of a drop-off,” Brody said.
Still, this election cycle has seen the launch of the outside group Evangelicals for Harris. Last week, the group rolled out a $1 million ad campaign featuring past footage of the late prominent evangelist Billy Graham in an effort to attack Trump. Evangelist Franklin Graham criticized the use of his father in the ad, writing in a post on the social platform X that his father “appreciated” Trump’s conservative values in 2016 and that his views would not have changed if he were alive today.
But those affiliated with the group say there is an opportunity to win over at least some white evangelical voters, pointing to frustration with Trump’s rhetoric.
“The outreach to white evangelical voters who have typically voted for Republican candidates in recent years is part of a larger effort to talk about faith and welcome people of faith into the Democratic coalition,” Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) said. “Our goal should be to win over as many new voters as we can.”
But conservative evangelicals are skeptical, arguing that most white evangelicals likely would not vote for Harris.
“This effort is at least kind of a tip of the hat toward this community,” said Timothy Head, executive director of the Faith & Freedom Coalition. However, Head predicted Trump would get “at least” 83 percent of evangelicals in November.
Many conservative evangelicals are pushing Trump to turn out as much of their base as possible, pointing to the group’s role in past elections. In 2008, President Obama won more than 26 percent of the evangelical vote, a 5-point improvement from then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004.
In 2012, Obama’s support slightly dipped to 21 percent, while his opponent, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), improved on Republican margins with the group by winning 78 percent. Obama ultimately won reelection.
But in 2016, Hillary Clinton won only 16 percent of the group, while Trump received 81 percent. In 2020, Trump’s support with the group grew to 84 percent. Other exit polls, including AP VoteCast, showed Trump and President Biden winning 81 and 18 percent of the group in 2020, respectively, while Edison exit polls estimate 76 percent went for Trump and 24 percent went for Biden.
In an effort to maintain his critical support among evangelicals, Brody argued Trump should continue to focus on abortion, among other issues.
“He needs to have a lean-in strategy to the evangelical community on abortion rather than this idea that you want to possibly moderate your position more to win over suburban woman [and] independents,” Brody said. “That’s what this election is all about. It’s at the margins.”